Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1800 SAM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -10.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.1 (-1.1) | 156.4 (+1.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -10.3 (-2.3) | 155.5 (+2.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -8.9 (-0.9) | 156.0 (+2.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.5 (+0.5) | 159.3 (-1.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#67) | 3.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#185) | 2.26 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#190) | 3.14 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#269) | 0.559 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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