Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -2000 WIU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +26 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -14.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -10.1 (+15.9) | 135.6 (+2.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -10.3 (+15.7) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -10.3 (+15.7) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -10.5 (+15.5) | 133.6 (+4.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#201) | -9.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#241) | -1.68 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#249) | -3.29 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#207) | 0.286 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 44.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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