Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | CLT -340 GWEB +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -1.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-41.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -2.0 (+4.0) | 144.3 (-30.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -1.0 (+5.0) | 149.0 (-35.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -1.6 (+4.4) | 146.7 (-32.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -1.4 (+7.4) | 141.7 (-27.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-6 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#208) | 6.8 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#177) | 1.73 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#185) | 2.98 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#195) | 0.585 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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