Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -10000 SIE +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -11.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -12.1 (+12.9) | 148.4 (-13.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.4 (+13.6) | 148.5 (-13.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.1 (+14.9) | 146.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -13.2 (+11.8) | 146.0 (-11.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#98) | 0.0 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#49) | 2.47 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#47) | 2.64 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#123) | 0.614 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.18 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 36.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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