Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -120 DREX +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -3.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.2 (-4.8) | 131.4 (-3.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -1.5 (-4.5) | 129.7 (-1.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -1.7 (-4.3) | 132.1 (-4.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.2 (-3.8) | 130.5 (-2.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | DREX 65 – 47 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#325) | 0.9 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#222) | -0.88 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#242) | -0.97 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#177) | 0.463 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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