I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Leo D. Mahoney Arena · November 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -0.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money FAIR -120 / DREX +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual DREX +6 128 Lost
Massey DREX -3.1 (-2.9)
Massey Totals 125.8 (+2.2)
Bradley-Terry 87%
Weighted B-T 87%
Baseline Plus ML DREX -1.2 (-4.8) 131.4 (-3.4) 43%
Baseline ML DREX -1.5 (-4.5) 129.7 (-1.7) 34%
Baseline Tuned ML DREX -1.7 (-4.3) 132.1 (-4.1) 38%
Efficiency Plus ML DREX -2.2 (-3.8) 130.5 (-2.5) 37%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2023 DREX 6547 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR DREX
Overall 12-20 18-15
Conference 8-12 9-9
Home 8-6 8-6
Away 3-12 7-7
Neutral 1-2 3-2
Last 5 1-2 1-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.7 69.6
Avg Pts Against 73.5 67.6
Massey -9.0 (#325) 0.9 (#153)
Bradley-Terry -0.47 (#222) -0.88 (#253)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.02 (#242) -0.97 (#240)
RPI 0.503 (#177) 0.463 (#224)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR DREX
FG% 32.5% 40.6%
3PT% 22.4% 31.7%
REB / G 36.3 41.3
OREB / G 14.0 11.3
AST / TO 0.97 1.48
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 36.3% 47.6%
TOV% 16.5% 14.5%
ORB% 30.4% 30.1%
FT Rate 18.6% 12.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.9% 43.4%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 11.0%
DRB% 71.3% 78.3%
Opp FT Rate 33.7% 25.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.