Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -6000 EIU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -23.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -23.5 (-14.5) | 149.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -26.0 (-17.0) | 149.6 (-2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -20.1 (-11.1) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -16.8 (-7.8) | 149.5 (-2.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#61) | -8.5 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#118) | -0.77 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#132) | -0.82 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#253) | 0.546 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 11.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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