Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -400 HOF +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -0.3 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -1.8 (+16.2) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.1 (+15.9) | 138.5 (+1.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -2.8 (+15.2) | 138.8 (+1.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.8 (+16.2) | 136.8 (+3.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#224) | 4.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#157) | 1.87 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#170) | 2.35 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#154) | 0.609 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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