Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -5000 RID +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -16.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -15.8 (+9.2) | 143.2 (-2.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -17.1 (+7.9) | 144.3 (-3.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -15.2 (+9.8) | 144.1 (-3.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -16.4 (+8.6) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#52) | -1.1 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#14) | 0.90 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#10) | 0.76 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#25) | 0.492 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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