Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UK -5000 LIP +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +29 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UK -30.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -27.8 (+1.2) | 153.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -28.9 (+0.1) | 151.3 (+13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -23.7 (+5.3) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -23.3 (+5.7) | 158.1 (+6.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#6) | -1.7 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#10) | -1.00 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#11) | -0.91 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.772 (#6) | 0.365 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.8% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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