Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -20000 TNTC +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -19.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -15.5 (-4.5) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -16.1 (-5.1) | 144.6 (+4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -14.4 (-3.4) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -16.8 (-5.8) | 148.9 (+0.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#73) | -6.0 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#25) | 0.05 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#28) | -0.76 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.853 (#2) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 40.2% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 57.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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