Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ND -3000 UND +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ND -19.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -20.4 (-3.4) | 145.7 (-12.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -22.5 (-5.5) | 145.7 (-12.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -17.0 (-0.0) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -17.5 (-0.5) | 143.8 (-10.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#65) | -5.7 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#15) | 0.15 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#17) | 0.01 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#24) | 0.630 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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