Betting Lines
| Spread | SELA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +110 SELA -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SELA -1.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -1.1 (-4.1) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -0.9 (-3.9) | 140.8 (-3.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -0.4 (-3.4) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -0.1 (-2.9) | 140.3 (-3.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-11 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#327) | -1.3 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#278) | -1.79 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#284) | -3.36 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#264) | 0.443 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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