Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF -145 IDST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -6.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -4.8 (+5.8) | 131.3 (-8.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -4.7 (+5.7) | 131.9 (-8.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -4.3 (+5.3) | 132.1 (-9.1) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -5.2 (+6.2) | 133.0 (-10.0) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-11 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#305) | 6.2 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#272) | 0.20 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#262) | 0.70 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#159) | 0.537 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.3% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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