Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -175 UNT +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -2.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -1.1 (+5.9) | 129.4 (-0.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -1.1 (+5.9) | 132.1 (-3.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -1.1 (+5.9) | 133.0 (-4.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -0.1 (+7.1) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 60.6 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#176) | 4.1 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#318) | 2.65 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#311) | 3.66 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#311) | 0.642 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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