Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -6000 PAC +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +19 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -17.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -15.1 (+3.9) | 132.8 (+30.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -14.6 (+4.4) | 129.9 (+33.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -13.0 (+6.0) | 132.3 (+30.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -16.1 (+2.9) | 134.9 (+28.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#67) | -3.4 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#119) | -1.58 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#92) | -2.43 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#98) | 0.375 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.9% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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