Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -1400 AMER +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -15.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -16.2 (-9.2) | 133.5 (+19.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -16.6 (-9.6) | 135.0 (+18.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -14.3 (-7.3) | 136.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -15.0 (-8.0) | 133.2 (+19.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#116) | -6.2 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#110) | -0.21 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#118) | -0.27 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#153) | 0.496 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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