Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +41 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -13.6 (+27.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -17.0 (+24.0) | 155.4 (+23.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -17.3 (+23.7) | 154.4 (+24.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -14.2 (+26.8) | 152.3 (+26.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -17.6 (+23.4) | 158.4 (+20.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-6 | 3-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#130) | -4.5 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#173) | -1.09 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#177) | -1.31 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#135) | 0.411 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 58.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 41.7% |
Game Analysis
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