Betting Lines
| Spread | QUIN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY +120 QUIN -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUIN +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -1.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -2.2 (-13.2) | 150.1 (-13.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.2 (-13.2) | 147.3 (-10.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.6 (-12.6) | 144.7 (-7.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | QUIN -1.0 (-10.0) | 145.5 (-8.5) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | QUIN 71 – 68 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#342) | -6.0 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#334) | -0.22 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#320) | -0.61 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.341 (#323) | 0.456 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 22.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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