Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–8 on winners spread MAE 13.4 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Coppin State @ UMBC +13.9 127.2 90% 67–92 ✓
Stonehill @ Robert Morris +17.5 153.9 94% 51–63 ✓
South Carolina State @ Jacksonville +13.3 146.6 89% 62–71 ✓
Bryant @ Buffalo +17.5 166.9 94% 87–64 ✗
Nicholls @ Northern Kentucky +5.8 139.7 70% 61–59 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Wichita State +20.6 162.8 97% 73–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri +18.5 144.0 95% 39–111 ✓
Morehead State @ Chattanooga +18.6 136.5 95% 62–76 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Oklahoma State +18.1 157.1 95% 78–85 ✓
Northern Colorado @ South Dakota State -8.8 175.9 21% 78–69 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Arizona State +10.3 147.1 83% 76–87 ✓
LSU @ Kansas State +4.6 147.1 66% 76–65 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico State +20.9 155.1 97% 82–83 ✓
Seattle U @ Cal Poly +13.5 162.2 89% 71–75 ✓
Omaha @ UNLV +3.0 160.4 61% 69–80 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific +14.3 153.1 90% 60–57 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Charleston Southern -2.5 167.2 41% 86–76 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ VMI +4.6 149.2 66% 72–71 ✗
New Orleans @ Stonehill -2.0 149.1 43% 54–80 ✗
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart -0.3 151.4 49% 82–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Michigan +10.9 141.8 84% 79–60 ✗
William & Mary @ Winthrop +15.1 143.1 91% 85–86 ✓
Virginia @ Villanova +1.1 143.6 54% 70–60 ✗
Florida @ Florida State -2.2 151.8 42% 87–74 ✓
TCU @ Michigan +16.1 146.4 93% 64–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Rutgers +22.7 151.5 98% 81–98 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.