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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–9 on winners
spread MAE 12.5
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Le Moyne
@
UConn
|
+30.9 | 161.4 | 100% | 49–90 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Tennessee
|
+32.3 | 129.2 | 100% | 57–92 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Howard
|
-7.4 | 147.2 | 25% | 84–88 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Jacksonville State
|
+10.6 | 155.2 | 83% | 67–72 | ✓ |
Coastal Carolina
@
NC State
|
+15.2 | 132.2 | 92% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Bucknell
|
+27.3 | 157.1 | 99% | 93–89 | ✗ |
Harvard
@
Northeastern
|
+7.6 | 152.7 | 76% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Toledo
|
+14.8 | 163.5 | 91% | 77–86 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
Presbyterian
|
+10.5 | 150.5 | 83% | 68–71 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
-1.7 | 134.3 | 44% | 74–65 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Charlotte
|
+15.5 | 163.3 | 92% | 48–65 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Dayton
|
+18.2 | 138.8 | 95% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
George Mason
|
+14.3 | 138.3 | 90% | 70–69 | ✗ |
Milwaukee
@
Longwood
|
+17.0 | 150.1 | 94% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Mercyhurst
|
+14.4 | 154.3 | 91% | 52–62 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Wake Forest
|
+21.2 | 152.2 | 97% | 80–85 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
VCU
|
+16.3 | 137.9 | 93% | 42–63 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+22.9 | 142.6 | 98% | 63–80 | ✓ |
Southern
@
East Texas A&M
|
+7.4 | 157.6 | 75% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Auburn
|
+24.5 | 146.2 | 99% | 56–79 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Houston
|
+29.0 | 139.2 | 100% | 45–91 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Arkansas
|
+2.7 | 136.7 | 60% | 49–65 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Western Illinois
|
+16.7 | 140.5 | 94% | 87–73 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Tulsa
|
+15.4 | 159.7 | 92% | 76–85 | ✓ |
California
@
Vanderbilt
|
+13.8 | 156.6 | 89% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Texas Tech
|
+16.5 | 149.5 | 93% | 49–96 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Hofstra
|
+6.0 | 135.7 | 71% | 48–49 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Minnesota
|
+8.7 | 137.8 | 79% | 54–51 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Nebraska
|
+20.9 | 148.6 | 97% | 60–86 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Creighton
|
+15.8 | 154.8 | 92% | 43–78 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Illinois
|
+38.2 | 148.3 | 100% | 54–66 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Colorado
|
+16.3 | 146.1 | 93% | 53–83 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
BYU
|
+19.3 | 144.9 | 96% | 55–99 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Santa Clara
|
+16.2 | 161.2 | 93% | 88–80 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+30.7 | 141.5 | 100% | 86–91 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Nevada
|
+17.2 | 133.1 | 94% | 58–88 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
San Francisco
|
+7.0 | 157.8 | 74% | 54–84 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
USC
|
+22.8 | 157.7 | 98% | 95–98 | ✓ |
Utah Valley
@
North Dakota
|
-2.9 | 143.9 | 39% | 71–77 | ✗ |
Lindenwood
@
New Orleans
|
-3.4 | 153.2 | 38% | 74–82 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
IU Indianapolis
|
+11.4 | 140.6 | 85% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.