Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -1600 MRMK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +21 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -17.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -11.9 (+9.1) | 132.0 (-27.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -15.8 (+5.2) | 135.2 (-30.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -13.8 (+7.2) | 134.9 (-29.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#48) | 0.1 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#51) | 1.33 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#41) | 2.23 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#47) | 0.750 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 8.8% |
Game Analysis
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