Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -37.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +41 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -30.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -30.3 (+10.7) | 155.1 (-16.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -30.2 (+10.8) | 152.7 (-13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -24.9 (+16.1) | 152.7 (-13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -25.6 (+15.4) | 148.3 (-9.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 81.4 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#13) | -7.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#155) | -2.06 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#158) | -3.08 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#258) | 0.312 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 42.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 84.5% | 58.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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