Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -165 TNST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +4 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -6.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.9 (+5.9) | 142.6 (+29.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.0 (+7.0) | 140.4 (+31.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.8 (+6.8) | 141.5 (+30.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#306) | 0.3 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#237) | -0.70 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#236) | -0.89 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#155) | 0.500 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.9% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 11.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.6% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.5% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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