What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
The Field House · November 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SOU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money ETAM +135 / SOU -155
Model Predictions
Spread Total ETAM win
Actual ETAM +2 138 Won
Massey ETAM -7.0 (-5.0)
Massey Totals 157.6 (-19.6)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML ETAM -2.6 (-0.6) 149.5 (-11.5) 61%
Baseline ML ETAM -3.8 (-1.8) 150.0 (-12.0) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML ETAM -2.8 (-0.8) 147.6 (-9.6) 64%
Efficiency Plus ML ETAM -1.1 (+0.9) 147.6 (-9.6) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ETAM SOU
Overall 5-26 20-12
Conference 3-17 15-3
Home 4-10 11-1
Away 1-16 9-10
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 0-3 0-2
Streak W1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.4 70.6
Avg Pts Against 74.9 69.5
Massey -5.5 (#291) -2.8 (#235)
Bradley-Terry -0.94 (#285) -0.72 (#268)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.22 (#283) -0.99 (#265)
RPI 0.431 (#240) 0.458 (#222)
Shooting & Four Factors ETAM SOU
FG% 43.9% 45.7%
3PT% 29.9% 28.2%
REB / G 31.7 36.5
OREB / G 9.3 12.0
AST / TO 0.60 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 50.0%
TOV% 24.9% 18.5%
ORB% 25.9% 32.0%
FT Rate 13.3% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.1% 63.9%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 16.5%
DRB% 59.8% 75.4%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 21.3%

Game Analysis

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