Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ETAM +135 SOU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ETAM -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETAM -2.6 (-0.6) | 149.5 (-11.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETAM -3.8 (-1.8) | 150.0 (-12.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETAM -2.8 (-0.8) | 147.6 (-9.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETAM -1.1 (+0.9) | 147.6 (-9.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-10 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-16 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#291) | -2.8 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#285) | -0.72 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#283) | -0.99 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#240) | 0.458 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.3% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 63.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 59.8% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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