Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SCU -2500 NDSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SCU -16.8 (-24.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -12.1 (-20.1) | 148.9 (+19.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -12.7 (-20.7) | 149.9 (+18.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -10.5 (-18.5) | 146.9 (+21.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -12.9 (-20.9) | 146.2 (+21.8) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#151) | -5.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#191) | -2.98 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#193) | -4.51 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#222) | 0.208 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 11.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 8.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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