I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–11 on winners spread MAE 10.9 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Norfolk State @ William & Mary +6.9 153.5 73% 73–84 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Indiana State +6.3 149.4 72% 77–72 ✗
Old Dominion @ Radford +17.5 157.2 94% 75–87 ✓
Drexel @ Temple +14.2 150.1 90% 61–69 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ South Florida +26.5 171.9 99% 69–85 ✓
Fairfield @ New Hampshire +12.6 146.6 87% 62–56 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Purdue Fort Wayne +15.7 144.7 92% 69–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Tennessee Tech +25.0 145.7 99% 73–76 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ NJIT -4.1 138.0 35% 68–50 ✓
Lehigh @ Columbia +29.7 158.0 100% 75–76 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Lafayette +15.4 135.6 92% 63–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Northern Illinois +20.5 149.0 97% 66–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Miami (OH) +13.8 158.4 90% 70–88 ✓
American University @ Siena +7.4 135.3 75% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ High Point +16.6 157.7 93% 60–76 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ George Washington +22.0 146.2 98% 80–85 ✓
Binghamton @ Fordham +15.0 144.6 91% 63–78 ✓
Tarleton State @ Florida State +29.3 145.4 100% 52–72 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UCF +1.4 143.7 55% 94–100 ✓
Saint Francis @ Penn State +31.2 154.9 100% 62–92 ✓
UIC @ Northwestern +21.8 144.8 98% 74–83 ✓
Towson @ South Carolina +9.8 138.3 81% 54–80 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia +4.5 165.7 66% 77–90 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +6.4 144.3 72% 72–74 ✓
Rider @ Navy +10.8 144.4 84% 90–79 ✗
Delaware @ Iona +24.4 161.4 99% 64–58 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Clemson +13.9 156.7 90% 62–75 ✓
Texas Southern @ Georgia Tech +12.9 160.2 88% 62–81 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +24.6 158.9 99% 59–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Baylor -1.2 157.9 46% 67–104 ✗
South Alabama @ Ole Miss +13.5 142.2 89% 54–64 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +15.6 163.5 92% 63–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Valparaiso +15.8 151.0 92% 75–67 ✗
UL Monroe @ Rice +14.8 148.5 91% 50–66 ✓
Ohio @ Illinois State +21.0 146.1 97% 75–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Incarnate Word +20.2 149.3 97% 81–84 ✓
Chicago State @ Texas +26.7 152.5 99% 58–105 ✓
Belmont @ Lipscomb +16.9 147.6 94% 80–79 ✗
Texas State @ TCU +9.6 123.9 81% 71–76 ✓
Jackson State @ Xavier +17.9 150.2 95% 57–94 ✓
Duke @ Kentucky +2.0 167.6 57% 72–77 ✓
Denver @ Colorado State +15.9 154.4 93% 65–74 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico +2.9 163.2 60% 81–100 ✓
South Dakota @ Iowa +17.7 165.1 95% 77–96 ✓
Queens University @ Utah +18.8 150.3 96% 65–96 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +3.0 171.3 61% 70–69 ✗
Akron @ Saint Mary's +5.5 155.9 69% 68–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC San Diego +13.5 137.8 89% 54–64 ✓
Portland State @ San Diego +0.4 157.6 51% 85–76 ✗
Portland @ Oregon +35.3 145.8 100% 70–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Dartmouth +9.9 143.0 82% 87–73 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Massachusetts -3.5 163.6 37% 76–66 ✓
Wagner @ St. John's +24.8 150.3 99% 45–66 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Bellarmine +7.7 145.3 76% 71–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.