Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -1000 BCU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -15.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.8 (+16.2) | 140.9 (+19.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -8.8 (+13.2) | 138.7 (+21.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -7.0 (+15.0) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | PFW 86 – 63 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#141) | -2.4 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#195) | -0.66 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#199) | -0.83 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#26) | 0.500 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 58.3% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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