Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -190 FAU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -0.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+51.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -1.2 (+4.8) | 143.8 (+50.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.6 (+4.4) | 138.9 (+55.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2025 | UCF 85 – 80 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#183) | 11.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#78) | 1.06 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#84) | 1.64 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#6) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 55.7% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 47.8% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 64.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 41.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.4% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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