Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -455 FAU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -11.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -10.9 (-5.9) | 151.8 (+13.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.6 (-7.6) | 155.8 (+9.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -11.4 (-6.4) | 157.6 (+7.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -13.8 (-8.8) | 157.8 (+7.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2024 | UCF 100 – 94 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#40) | 5.3 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#14) | 1.19 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#15) | 1.68 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#21) | 0.583 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 42.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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