Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -3000 SDAK +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +19 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -15.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -11.8 (+7.2) | 155.6 (+17.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -12.0 (+7.0) | 157.0 (+16.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -11.1 (+7.9) | 156.1 (+16.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -15.1 (+3.9) | 161.2 (+11.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 86.6 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#122) | -2.4 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#124) | 0.61 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#126) | 0.75 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#210) | 0.479 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.3% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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