Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -6000 JKST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +37 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -18.2 (+18.8) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -15.0 (+22.0) | 147.6 (+3.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -14.1 (+22.9) | 145.4 (+5.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#215) | -7.9 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#97) | -0.96 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#104) | -1.37 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#125) | 0.312 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.35 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 47.3% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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