Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -1800 TAR +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +20 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -29.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -25.2 (-5.2) | 140.6 (-16.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -22.0 (-2.0) | 142.3 (-18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -17.8 (+2.2) | 140.8 (-16.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -16.1 (+3.9) | 137.6 (-13.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#158) | -17.4 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#43) | -2.17 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#46) | -3.38 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#48) | 0.354 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 29.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 54.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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