Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -20000 SFPA +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +30 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -31.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -25.6 (+4.4) | 152.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -28.3 (+1.7) | 150.1 (+3.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -23.4 (+6.6) | 152.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | PSU 83 – 53 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#4) | -3.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#98) | 0.78 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#91) | 0.64 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#125) | 0.593 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.38 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 10.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 17.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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