Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -215 RID +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RID +11 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -10.3 (-21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -4.7 (-15.7) | 143.0 (+26.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -5.5 (-16.5) | 139.9 (+29.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.9 (-15.9) | 139.5 (+29.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.8 (-13.8) | 139.2 (+29.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-12 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#207) | -0.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#192) | 1.51 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#212) | 1.52 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#208) | 0.605 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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