Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UK +195 DUKE -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UK -3.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -1.3 (+3.7) | 159.9 (-10.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.3 (+2.7) | 159.9 (-10.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -1.3 (+3.7) | 156.4 (-7.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -2.8 (+2.2) | 157.6 (-8.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2021 | DUKE 79 – 71 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 19-1 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#2) | 16.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#11) | 1.35 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#5) | 2.04 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.958 (#4) | 0.938 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.41 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.8% | 62.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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