Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -7500 SELA +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -24.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -19.7 (+1.3) | 148.7 (-9.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -24.5 (-3.5) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -19.5 (+1.5) | 151.7 (-12.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | MSST 75 – 68 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#21) | -2.7 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#87) | -1.13 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#89) | -1.87 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#48) | 0.375 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.50 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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