Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +47 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -26.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -26.6 (+20.4) | 150.3 (+12.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -25.4 (+21.6) | 146.4 (+16.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -21.7 (+25.3) | 145.9 (+17.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-7 | 3-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#59) | -8.8 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#191) | -2.12 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#187) | -3.23 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.719 (#40) | 0.375 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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