Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -1800 TXST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -17.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -17.0 (-12.0) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -12.3 (-7.3) | 135.8 (+11.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#25) | 3.0 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#126) | 0.47 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#121) | 0.68 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#230) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 46.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 33.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 83.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.0% | 8.6% |
Game Analysis
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