Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GT -1800 TXSO +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | GT -12.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -8.9 (+10.1) | 157.3 (-14.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -10.2 (+8.8) | 152.6 (-9.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -9.5 (+9.5) | 149.0 (-6.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -9.2 (+9.8) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#241) | -4.4 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#274) | -0.63 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#272) | -0.85 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#213) | 0.500 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 58.2% |
Game Analysis
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