Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | USF -4000 UAPB +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | USF -24.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -13.9 (+2.1) | 155.4 (-1.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -12.3 (+3.7) | 154.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -13.8 (+2.2) | 156.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2023 | USF 104 – 86 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#218) | -16.0 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#300) | -0.73 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#298) | -1.08 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#125) | 0.500 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 62.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 56.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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