That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
Yuengling Center · December 13, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USF -17.0 Home covered
O/U 161.5 Over
Money USF -2000 / UAPB +1050
Model Predictions
Spread Total USF win
Actual USF +18 190 Won
Massey USF -19.3 (-1.3)
Massey Totals 162.9 (+27.1)
Bradley-Terry 87%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML USF -17.2 (+0.8) 155.9 (+34.1) 88%
Baseline ML USF -15.2 (+2.8) 152.7 (+37.3) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML USF -15.0 (+3.0) 158.2 (+31.8) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML USF -16.5 (+1.5) 162.8 (+27.2) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2024 USF 8569 UAPB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USF UAPB
Overall 25-8 13-18
Conference 16-2 8-10
Home 15-3 8-6
Away 8-4 5-12
Neutral 2-1 0-0
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.7 75.7
Avg Pts Against 69.3 83.7
Massey 1.4 (#149) -13.0 (#346)
Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#272) -1.90 (#314)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.11 (#261) -3.50 (#336)
RPI 0.442 (#263) 0.480 (#203)
Shooting & Four Factors USF UAPB
FG% 38.9% 39.1%
3PT% 28.4% 37.3%
REB / G 37.9 28.1
OREB / G 11.4 8.9
AST / TO 1.10 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.1% 47.8%
TOV% 16.5% 16.4%
ORB% 28.5% 22.6%
FT Rate 28.2% 30.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 62.5%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 18.6%
DRB% 71.7% 58.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.5% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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