Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -2000 USA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -14.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -12.1 (-2.1) | 139.6 (-21.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -13.7 (-3.7) | 138.5 (-20.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -10.5 (-0.5) | 140.2 (-22.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#103) | 0.2 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#51) | -1.62 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#41) | -2.37 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.719 (#40) | 0.271 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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