Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | W&M -130 NORF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -7.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -3.0 (+8.0) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -1.7 (+9.3) | 147.6 (+9.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -2.1 (+8.9) | 146.1 (+10.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | W&M 81 – 78 NORF |
| Nov 29, 2023 | NORF 96 – 62 W&M |
| Dec 10, 2022 | NORF 67 – 53 W&M |
| Nov 17, 2021 | NORF 91 – 74 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#264) | -0.3 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#245) | 0.68 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#251) | 1.02 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#293) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 60.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 46.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 0.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 67.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| FT Rate | 48.3% | 48.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 60.6% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.4% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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