Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -165 CLE +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -16.5 (-24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -7.5 (-15.5) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -7.5 (-15.5) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -8.4 (-16.4) | 141.6 (+0.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | VAL 90 – 75 CLE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#288) | -11.1 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#254) | -1.00 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#274) | -1.46 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#125) | 0.312 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.9% | 33.8% |
| 3PT% | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 19.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.5% | 36.9% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 28.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 46.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.1% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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