Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UIW -800 PV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -21.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -13.5 (-10.5) | 145.0 (+20.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -10.9 (-7.9) | 144.9 (+20.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 3-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#154) | -9.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#209) | -0.37 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#205) | -0.55 (#216) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 31.9% |
| 3PT% | 47.8% | 12.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 33.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 8.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 7.5% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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