Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GW -2000 NCAT +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GW -21.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -20.5 (-15.5) | 144.2 (+20.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -22.0 (-17.0) | 140.4 (+24.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -17.0 (-12.0) | 142.0 (+23.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#38) | -2.0 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#59) | -0.22 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#51) | -0.29 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#48) | 0.625 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 22.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 13.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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