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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–1 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
28 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McNeese
@
Alabama
|
+27.5 | 157.5 | 99% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Florida
|
+10.8 | 146.6 | 84% | 62–86 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Rutgers
|
+14.0 | 135.1 | 90% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Southern Indiana
@
Marshall
|
+4.3 | 153.5 | 65% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
George Mason
|
+14.7 | 141.6 | 91% | 56–94 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Pittsburgh
|
+12.9 | 156.0 | 88% | 64–83 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Notre Dame
|
+17.2 | 156.5 | 94% | 77–86 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Missouri
|
+18.0 | 153.6 | 95% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Butler
|
+3.4 | 132.8 | 62% | 65–85 | ✓ |
UT Martin
@
North Alabama
|
+11.9 | 140.9 | 86% | 69–87 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Furman
|
+17.1 | 142.1 | 94% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Maryland
|
+27.5 | 148.6 | 99% | 53–84 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Virginia Tech
|
+14.5 | 152.6 | 91% | 52–58 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Virginia
|
+20.8 | 126.3 | 97% | 45–62 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Tulane
|
+27.0 | 143.8 | 99% | 51–84 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Purdue
|
+12.3 | 148.2 | 87% | 84–92 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Oklahoma
|
+18.3 | 148.9 | 95% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Austin Peay
|
+20.1 | 140.9 | 97% | 61–67 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
SMU
|
+18.0 | 158.0 | 95% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Marquette
|
+23.6 | 154.4 | 98% | 62–70 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
+20.6 | 151.5 | 97% | 81–86 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Washington State
|
+19.2 | 162.6 | 96% | 67–90 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
UCLA
|
+25.9 | 137.9 | 99% | 40–71 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Hawai'i
|
+5.4 | 156.1 | 69% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+4.6 | 147.8 | 66% | 76–83 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Kansas
|
-4.0 | 150.7 | 36% | 69–77 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Providence
|
+17.7 | 129.5 | 95% | 51–60 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
La Salle
|
+19.4 | 152.0 | 96% | 77–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.