Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ND -10000 BUF +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ND -17.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -11.1 (-2.1) | 147.6 (+15.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -16.1 (-7.1) | 148.9 (+14.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -13.0 (-4.0) | 150.0 (+13.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#89) | -1.5 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#145) | 1.69 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#132) | 1.88 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#106) | 0.500 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 56.1% |
| 3PT% | 47.8% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 64.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 51.5% | 17.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 82.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 5.2% |
Game Analysis
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