Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -1800 UNCG +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -14.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -12.7 (+0.3) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -13.2 (-0.2) | 150.4 (-1.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -10.9 (+2.1) | 150.5 (-1.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#112) | 0.1 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#142) | 0.42 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#139) | 0.54 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#212) | 0.500 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 10.7% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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