Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -7500 GRAM +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -10.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -16.0 (+8.0) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -15.2 (+8.8) | 141.2 (+6.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -10.2 (+13.8) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | FLA 96 – 57 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#59) | 7.0 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#58) | -0.28 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#54) | -0.14 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#106) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 47.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 30.8% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 8.6% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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